General Seminars

Forecasting of Life and Nonlife Premiums for IRAN ?s Insurance Market for the period
1378 ? 1382

A. Daghighi Asli

Advisor of Iran Insurance Research Center
Ph.D. Student of Management, Azad Islamic University

Date:Wed., Feb. 20, 2002

Premium forecasting even with a reasonable deviation; which is usual in statistical techniques, enable product designers in long and midterm planning to use these forecasts in an optimum way.
Due to large and unacceptable standard error, of a registration model, interpretation of a time dependent variable like y(t), in an framework of regression model difficult or even impossible. At the other hand prediction of y(t) based on a previous values of it in a time series model, enable us to predict premium without need of other independent variables which recognition of them is not easily possible.
Regarding to the above, this paper tries to predict the premium fro period 1378 to 1382 by the use of time series techniques which for the first time is used in Iran insurance industry, and also by use of life and nonlife premium figures in years 1354 up to 1377.

Place:Seminar Hall, School of Physics, Farmaniyeh Building, No 1 Shahid Farbin Street, Farmaniyeh.
Tel:+98 21 2280692
Fax:+98 21 2280415

See also the time table
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